Saturday, August 16, 2008

Men's 10,000 M Prediction


Here it is! I will go on a limb and say anything other than a sweep is a disappointment. What’s the point of Haile taking up a spot if he is not here to win a medal? If the others don't medal it's a huge disappointment.

Kennenisa and Sileshi have been as solid as it gets. In 2004 an injured Haile still came in 5th. Haile is fit and he showed it in Hengelo coming in 2nd after Sileshi. Sileshi had to run his third fastest time ever to beat Haile.

Kenya has a young crew; the senior among them is twenty three year old Martin Mathathi who took bronze in Osaka. You never know what this young crew can do.

In Osaka, Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea pushed the pace alone only to fade later. This time around he has his brother Kidane Tadesse. Zersenay and his brother are both capable of winning a medal if they work together.

And there is Boniface Kiprop of Uganda who lost his bronze in Athens to Zersenay in the confusion that Kennenisa and Sileshi created in Athens. Boniface, was 19 in Athens and had broken of from the pack along with Kennenisa and Sileshi but when the two slowed down to pick up Haile they confused Kiporop and at the same time picked up Zersenay. He is still a solid runner.





One thing to watch for is competition among the Ethiopian runners is going to be fierce. This may work against the sweep. Sileshi and Haile probably can’t out sprint Kenenisa so a slow race is not in their favor but at the same time a fast race does not help them either since Kenenisa has the Seasons Best. Of the two bad options, Haile probably would prefer a fast race hoping the heat would distract the other two. The danger is that there probably won’t be a team approach to this race.


What are your thoughts?

13 comments:

yekolotemari said...

Hi Guys,
I also predict a sweep; Kenenisa, Seleshi, Haile.


After watching the women's 10k, however, I am sort of concerned with the preparation of our team. Fortunately, the talent of the above proven and consistent runners should overcome my concern (even if my assumption is true).

I expect at least the above three to run sub 27. That is the only way Haile would medal. The Only danger I see is Zeresenay Tadesse who is strong and has excellent endurance.
If he hangs around until the final laps, he has a potential to beat Haile and spoil the sweep.

http://blog.yekolo.com/?p=249

roocha said...

I like Kenenisa but it will be great if Sileshi gets the gold this time. I think he had a chance for gold in Osaka last year but he was caught by surprise when the situation presented itself. Kenenisa was on the ropes and they let him back in. Look for one of the Tadesse brothers to go out on WR pace. I think it will take a sub 27 (which will be Olympic Record) to win this race. Sileshi looked race sharp winning both the Rome Golden League 5000 in July, and the Hengelo 10000 in May. I predict Sileshi to win the Gold... matching his fiancee's Gold from yesterday, and the two get married in a golden wedding in September.

Gobena said...

This is easy 1-2-3 Haile will be second.

yekolotemari said...

roocha,

I would love it if Seleshi wins as well but I do not see it happening. Kenenisa's kick has no answer.

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